Bayes ' formula: how to use in sports betting?

Bayes ' formula: how to use in sports betting?

    To improve profits, players bookmakers are mathematical analysis of sports events. In this difficult case we can help , Bayes ' formula, which can be used to calculate the probability of a certain outcome of the match. Let's see what Bayes ' formula and how to apply for sports betting.

    What is Bayes ' formula?

    Thomas Bayes is a British mathematician who worked in this section how the theory of probability. And his most famous work is "the Bayes theorem". In betting on sports players can also use this theorem to obtain more precise probability of an outcome of a sporting event.

    The Bayes theorem States that the specific circumstances might affect the probability of another outcome of the meeting.

    The formula for calculating the probability:

    P(X/Y) – probability of event X under condition Y;

    P(X) is the probability of the event X;

    P(Y/X) – probability of event Y when event condition X;

    P(Y) – the probability of the event Y.

    Example of sports forecast the Bayes ' formula

    Let us examine a simple example. The probability of winning the pilot at the race of Formula 1 is 60%. 30% he won in the rain. And at this point, the probability that it will rain 25%.

    P(X/Y)= (60*30)/25=72%

    Thus, the probability of a victory of the driver, if rain is 72%. Suggest you to bet on the winner in case if the likelihood of a more 65%. For the total probability must be more than 85%.

    Of course, it is impossible to calculate a 100% probability of an outcome. But the Bayesian method is one of the most common ways for a player to increase your chances of a win at the bookmaker.

    Forecasts for the sport Car.

    In section "Predictions Auto Bayes for today's matches" you can find the most accurate free sports picks today, compiled with the help of the formula of Thomas Bayes. In the category "Most popular bets for football today," presents forecasts of the Auto Bayes for all the popular football matches.

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